Hordhac & Asalka Dagaalka Canshuuraha
Dagaalka canshuuraha (“trade war”) ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka ma aha wax cusub — wuxuu bilaabmay xilligii hoggaamintii Trump (2018) markaas oo Maraykanku kusoo rogay canshuuro ballaaran alaabooyin Shiinaha laga keeno, Shiinahuna kaga jawaabay canshuuro iyo tallaabooyin kale.
Sanadka 2025, markii Trump uu mar kale xafiiska yimid, waxa dhacay isbeddello waaweyn oo kale, iyadoo labada dhinac ay mar kale kordhiyeen cabirka canshuuraha iyo tallaabooyin kale oo ganacsi.
Waxa Cusub ee 2025 — Canshuuraha Ugu Dambeeya & Isbeddellada
1. Canshuur universal iyo “reciprocal tariffs” (canshuur iskudheel)
Bishii Febraayo 2025, Trump waxa uu saxiixay amar fulineed oo 10% canshuur guud ah lagu soo rogo dhammaan alaabooyinka laga keeno Shiinaha.
Kadib, waxaa la dhawaaqay “canshuur reciprocal” (taasoo ah in Shiinaha laga rabo inuu isla heerkaaga canshuuraha ka jawaabo) oo lagu daray canshuur gaar ah alaabooyinka Shiinaha laga keeno.
Bilowgii April 2025, Trump waxa uu ku dhawaaqay in canshuuraha laga bilaabayo 5-ta April, iyadoo canshuuro gaar ah (reciprocal) la dhaqan gelinayo 9-ka April 2025.
2. Kordhinta Canshuuraha ilaa 25% — ka dibna dhimista
Markii hore, canshuuraha guud ee alaabooyinka Shiinaha ayaa la kordhiyay, iyadoo heerka guud mararka qaar la sheegayo inuu gaaray 45%.
Laakiin, heshiis diblomaasiyadeed oo dhex-mara labada dal — gaar ahaan shir wadahadal ah oo lagu qabtay Geneva — ayaa lagu heshiiyay in canshuurahaas aadka u sarreeya dib loo dhimo, isla markaana heerka guud ee canshuuraha la sugo uu noqdo 10% canshuur universal + 20% canshuur “fentanyl” (tani waa canshuur dheeriga ah oo Maraykanku ku dooday inuu ku kordhiyay alaabooyinka Shiinaha qaarkood sababo amni) = guud ahaan 30%.
Heshiiskan dib-u-dhimista ayaa badanaa lagu qabtay muddo kooban — tusaale ahaan, heshiiska 90-maalmood ah ee dayactirka canshuuraha, kaas oo dhamaan doona 10-ka November 2025.
3. Canshuuraha cusub ee 100% iyo tallaabooyinka cusub
Bishii October 2025, Trump waxa uu dib ugu hanjabay in uu ku rogi doono canshuur dheeraad ah 100% alaabooyinka Shiinaha laga keeno, taas oo bilaaban doonta 1-da November 2025.
Dhinaca Shiinaha, waxa uu kordhiyay kontrolo dhoofinta (export controls) gaar ahaan walxo loo yaqaan “rare earths” (macdanta dhifka ah) iyo walxo kale oo muhiim u ah tignoolajiyada, taas oo qayb ka noqotay dagaalka ganacsi iyo jawaabta Shiinaha.
Labada dhinac sidoo kale waxay bilaabeen canshuuro deked (port fees) oo dheeri ah oo lagu soo rogo markabka ama shirkadaha mara dekedaha, sidii qeyb ka mid ah dagaalka canshuuraha badda.
4. Isbeddelka canshuuraha alaabada yaryar & “de minimis” loophole
Maraykanku waxa uu joojiyay khaladaadka (loopholes) uu horey uga faa’iidaysan jiray in alaabooyin yaryar (qiimahoodu hooseeyo) loo keeno dalka iyada oo canshuur la’aan ama canshuur yar lagu qaado. Tani waxay si gaar ah u saameyn doontaa shirkadaha e-commerce sida Shein.
Bishii May 2025, Maraykanku waxa uu dhigay canshuur cusub oo lagu yareynayo faa’iidada loophole-ka: laga bilaabo 20% canshuur laga qaadi jiray alaabada yaryar waxaa lagu beddelay 54%.
Saameynta & Caqabadaha
Saameynta Macaamiisha & Suuqa Maraykanka
Kordhinta canshuuraha waxay keentay in qiimaha alaabada la keeno Shiinaha uu si weyn u kaco gudaha Maraykanka, taas oo culays ku keenaysa macaamiisha.
Dukaamo badan iyo shirkadaha tafaariiqda waxay ka feejigan yihiin saamaynta xilli xun, gaar ahaan xilliga damaashaadka (holiday season), halkaas oo iibka caadiga ah u badan yahay.
Saameynta Shiinaha & Dhoofiyeyaasha
Shiinaha ayaa wajahaya cadaadis weyn marka la eego hoos u dhaca dhoofisyadiisa suuqa Maraykanka iyo iskaashi kale, iyadoo qaar ka mid ah warshadaha ku tiirsan suuqa Maraykanka ay hoos u dhacayaan.
Si kastaba, Shiinaha ayaa sidoo kale dadaal ugu jira in uu balaadhiyo suuqyada kale iyo in uu hormariyo dhoofinta gudaha (especially mid high-tech) si uu u yareeyo ku tiirsanaanta Maraykanka.
Beddelka Silsiladaha Sahanka (Supply Chains)
Ganacsatada caalamiga ah ayaa bilaabay in ay baadi-goobaan “China +1” istiraatiijiyad — taas oo macnaheedu yahay in shirkado ay qayb ka yimaadaan alaabada Shiinaha laakiin qaybaha kale ka soo dhoofsadaan wadamo kale si loo yareeyo khatarta canshuuraha.
Warbixino cilmiyeed ayaa muujinaya in, inkastoo dadaallada lagu doonayo in silsiladaha sahanka la kala-bixiyo, haddana ku-tiirsanaanta qaybaha hore iyo agabka (materials) ee Shiinaha weli ay adag tahay in gebi ahaanba laga baxo.
Saameynta Beeraha Mareykanka (Soybeans iwm)
Shiinaha ayaa si gaar ah uga jawaabay canshuuraha Maraykanka dhoofinta soybeans, taas oo si weyn u saameysay beeralayda Maraykanka. Warbixin cilmiyeed ayaa muujinaysa hoos u dhac qiimaha soybeans iyo dakhliga beeralayda.
Tani waxay keentay in beeralayda Maraykanka raadiyaan suuqyo kale ama ku tiirsanaadaan taageerada dowladda si ay uga badbaadaan khasaaraha.
Suurtogalnimada Mustaqbalka & Talooyinka
Wadahadal rasmi ah oo u dhexeeya laba dal ayaa laga yaabaa inuu keeno heshiis xasillooni leh, laakiin khilaafaadka siyaasadeed iyo arrimaha amniga (specialmente teknoolajiyada iyo macdanta dhifka ah) waxay noqon doonaan caqabad.
Maraykanku wuxuu yeelan karaa taageero ballaaran gudaha (Congress, shirkadaha) ama caalami ah si uu canshuuraha ugu helo awood.
Shiinaha waxaa laga yaabaa inuu sii adkeeyo istiraatiijiyadiisa dhoofinta iyo horumarinta tiknoolajiyada gudaha, si uu u yareeyo ku-tiirsanaanta alaabooyinka dibadda.
Shirkadaha caalamiga ah waa inay sii wadaan inay qorsheeyaan istiraatiijiyado kala duwan (diversification) si aysan u saameyn weyn u gaarin haddii canshuuraha la siikordhiyo
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